First, Gilad's release is an emotional event for Israel. “Euphoria mixed with anxiety” is how a Washington Post headline put it. We've been praying for this for five years. When you're in Israel you see Gilad's face on billboards every day. Whether or not you approve of the deal, you have to be relieved for the Shalit family.
Second, this deal might have been the last the opportunity to save Gilad. Multiple factors lined up for this one to happen. The turmoil in Syria reportedly pushed Hamas to forgo some of their formerly absolute demands that Israel would never accept. The instability in Egypt means that our intermediary with Hamas might not be so helpful much longer. It could have been years before we got another chance at a deal that both parties would sign, and by then it might have been too late.
The Prime Minister’s cabinet approved this deal 26-3. At this point, the deal is signed by both parties on paper and hopefully will take place quickly without disruption (Iran is furious at the moment, which worries me a lot). There are a few arguments going around as to whether this was the right thing for Israel to do. Here are my thoughts.
The value of a life
What a statement this deal is about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. See how much the State of Israel values a single life. See the cynical game Hamas has been playing with negotiations. See how Gilad's captivity was a flagrant crime against humanity. Contrast Israel’s concern for an individual with the brutal takeover of Gaza in 2007 or the current goings-on in Syria.
The counterargument is that the price of a kidnapped soldier is now much higher, and sure to encourage more kidnappings. The Talmud raises this issue in BT Gittin 45a regarding the mitzvah of pidyon shevuyim, redeeming captives.
I am not at all persuaded that this a concern here. This was not the first kidnapping, there have been more kidnapping attempts in the meantime, and there will still be attempts in the future even without this deal. This is also not the first lopsided exchange made by Israel. They already know how much we value our soldiers, and we already know to be vigilant.
Also note that after five years of negotiation, Hamas gave up on some of its absolute demands. Israel stood firm on those demands and the price eventually went down.
Furthermore, Gilad Shalit was a huge bargaining chip for Hamas. They threatened him during the 2009 Operation Cast Lead, for example. Now they will no longer have a hostage to hold against us.
Returning terrorists to the wild
1,027 terrorists will be released, and about half of the first wave of them will be going back to their homes. There are two concerns here: justice for the crimes of these thugs, and the danger of future terror.
The loss of justice is part of the price of bringing Gilad home. It is obviously understandable that the victims’ families are upset about the release, and we should take their trauma into account. But to borrow a harsh phrase from Shir LaShalom, keeping these terrorists in jail won’t bring the victims back to life. Releasing them, on the other hand, will bring Gilad back to real life. I don’t see a strong argument here against the deal.
On the other hand, the danger in letting these terrorists go is undeniable. Many of them will probably return to terror, and some of them might be successful, chas veshalom. It will be hard to shake the feeling that this deal bears some responsibility. How can we risk many lives for just one life?
This is a serious moral question. But I think that the risk is not as steep as it looks at first glance.
First off, the most senior terrorists are not going free. Marwan Barghouti, Abdullah Barghouti, Ibrahim Hamed, Abbas Sayed, and Ahmed Saadat will all remain in jail, according to Shin Bet director Yoram Cohen. That is a victory for Israel.
The fact is that there are plenty of terrorists already out there who’ve been brought up on anti-Israel incitement. As Elder of Ziyon put it, “Brainless terror drones are a dime a dozen in the territories.” There’s always the risk of an attack, and if it’s not from the thugs currently in jail, it’s from some other thug walking free.
So terrorism is down now not because the terrorists aren’t trying, but because Israel’s security has gotten much stronger. The PA is also much more cooperative now. Have faith in God and in the IDF.
Another point I haven’t seen any analysts mention: some of the criminals going home might actually be useful for Israel. The Shin Bet has spent a lot of time with these people, and they have various methods for recruiting intelligence sources; I’ll leave it at that. Israel has two months to pick 550 prisoners of its own choosing for the second phase of the release. You can imagine what that process will be like.
Also, Israel already releases hundreds of prisoners every so often as “gestures”. At least we’re getting something back for this one.
And finally, it's not like the released terrorists will be given any sort of asylum by Israel. I'll leave that at that too.
Negotiating with terrorists
I already argued that this deal will not appreciably raise the risk of future kidnappings. But what about the general argument that negotiating with terrorists rewards terror? Won’t the average Palestinian on the street be saying to himself, “Hey, look, Hamas got something done!”?
This does concern me more, especially as Palestinians are making their bid for independence and the risk of violence is going up. This is a bad time for the Fatah officials known as moderates, who at least don’t openly call for murdering Jews, to be set back on their heels by a Hamas victory.
There has been significant progress in the security of the West Bank in the last few years, thanks to increased cooperation between the PA and Israel. I think the average Palestinian living in the West Bank appreciates that this is why his standard of living is much better than that of his friends in Gaza. Let’s hope the PA’s unilateral bid for independence doesn’t derail that progress. The perception of a Hamas victory might raise that risk, and we’ll never know if it did. But that risk is part of the price for Gilad's freedom.
An unfair deal
The deal is certainly unfair. Gilad should have been released immediately with no ransom five years ago. But these are the people we’re dealing with.
This was ultimately a difficult decision for Israel’s leadership. Netanyahu convened a secret meeting on Sunday that lasted eight hours through the night until 4 AM, followed by more meetings during the next days, until the entire cabinet was assembled Tuesday evening.
Here’s what Yoram Cohen had to say:
If there was a better alternative, operationally or via negotiations, perhaps we would have chosen it. But I think we got the best deal in terms of security parameters. This was a difficult deal in terms of diplomacy, security and morals, but to bring our soldier home in the relevant time frame, negotiations were needed, and the other side lowered its demands significantly on all aspects.
And here’s what Jeremiah had to say (31:14–16):
כֹּ֣ה ׀ אָמַ֣ר ה ק֣וֹל בְּרָמָ֤ה נִשְׁמָע֙ נְהִי֙ בְּכִ֣י תַמְרוּרִ֔ים רָחֵ֖ל מְבַכָּ֣ה עַל־בָּנֶ֑יהָ מֵֽאֲנָ֛ה לְהִנָּחֵ֥ם עַל־בָּנֶ֖יהָ כִּ֥י אֵינֶֽנּוּ׃
כֹּ֣ה ׀ אָמַ֣ר ה מִנְעִ֤י קוֹלֵךְ֙ מִבֶּ֔כִי וְעֵינַ֖יִךְ מִדִּמְעָ֑ה כִּי֩ יֵ֨שׁ שָׂכָ֤ר לִפְעֻלָּתֵךְ֙ נְאֻם־ה וְשָׁ֖בוּ מֵאֶ֥רֶץ אוֹיֵֽב׃
וְיֵשׁ־תִּקְוָ֥ה לְאַֽחֲרִיתֵ֖ךְ נְאֻם־ה וְשָׁ֥בוּ בָנִ֖ים לִגְבוּלָֽם׃
Thus says the Lord: A voice is heard in Ramah, mourning and great weeping, Rachel weeping for her children. She refuses to be comforted over her children, for they are missing.
Thus says the Lord: Restrain your voice from weeping and your eyes from tears, for your work will be rewarded, declares the Lord. They will return from the land of the enemy.
There is hope for your future, declares the Lord, and your children will return to their border.
